Ban Ki Moon's breath-holding contest with Burma

A bit of breath-holding is in order today as international aid agencies test Burma's promise to allow the agencies to move freely in cyclone-damaged areas. After UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon's visit with Burmese officials a few days ago, the junta agreed to allow international aid agency personnel greater access to the areas hit hardest by Cyclone Nargis. My guess is that what develops over the next few days will be a mixed bag given the military government's propensity for playing not-so-subtle cat and mouse games with the international community. But let's hope that the desire to save face pushes the junta to do the right thing.

Calls for Intervention in Burma Unrealistic

I'm going to open with a pretty obvious statement here: The comments sections of digital articles can sometimes leave you wondering when the End Times will get here, or at least thirsty for a couple of fingers of good bourbon. Often, the back and forth banter by those posting comments quickly devolves into absurdity and stupidity at best and rabid misanthropy at worst. But sometimes interesting points are made.

Something I've noticed developing in the digital world as a response to the cyclone and post-cyclone crisis in Burma is the assertion that the UN should intervene, sending Peacekeepers to secure the country and pave the way for aid delivery by UN agencies and international NGOs. Even I have argued that the Burmese government's treatment of its own citizens is grounds for reexamining the ideas in the seminal document "The Responsibility to Protect."

But military intervention in Burma by the UN is unrealistic, even if it is theoretically justified. Burma is a big country with a relatively large military. Traditionally, states are loathe to relinquish sovereignty. Losing power is no doubt the subject of many sleepless nights for General Than Shwe, and a big source of his paranoia.

But what would the UN do if it did exercise some plan to invade a sovereign state? Overthrow the government? (I know, I'm not missing the irony here, but this is the UN we're talking about, not the U.S.) And if the government were to fall, what then? The world body is in no way equipped to form an interim government in a country the size of Burma. East Timor, a country with fewer than 1 million citizens, has so far been the UN's largest nation-building experiment, and there's still a mission there (peacekeeping and advisory), nearly nine years after the initial interim government formed. Burma has nearly 50 times the population that East Timor has. This would be an impossible undertaking for the UN.

The mismanagement by Burma's government has been awful, and the current crises shows just how ill-equipped the regime is to lead, but now is not the time for complete systemic upheaval. It's tough to imagine anything positive coming from so much human suffering, but the cyclone may prove to be the biggest crack yet in the levee that is the Burmese government. Outside influence will trickle in, and with the population so fed up with the current leadership, its hold on the country may start to crumble.

Burmese Days

If the Burmese military junta were embodied in a single person, that person would need to be hospitalized for severe mental illness. The recent games the junta has been playing with the international community, and its own people through its propaganda machine, are symptomatic of some serious troubles: grandiosity, narcissism, the list goes on. In the past the little guy (the military government) has been a bit of a sociopath with a severe personality disorder.

The more recent failure to protect its own citizens in the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis by restricting foreign aid, denying visas to foreigners, and insisting that all aid be managed by the junta, represents a level of delusion that is criminally insane. The government, through its "news" outlets like the New Light of Myanmar, continues to insist that everything is fine, the situation is firmly under its control, and that all of Burma's citizens who need assistance are getting it. Perhaps this is more magical thinking than delusion: if they wish hard enough, maybe all their problems will go away.

It's clear that the junta isn't going to let Western aid agencies into the remote regions that need the most help, but let's hope that their newest promise to let aid be delivered by their ASEAN neighbors will prove fruitful. Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines are all countries with both governmental and nongovernmental agencies that are capable of delivering aid in emergency situations. Let's just hope they're given the chance.